Uncertainty Beclouds 2023 As The Battle Rages

By Annabel Ogheneganre

The year 2023 general election is pregnant with uncertainty and apprehension dogging preparations for the polls. The two major political parties in Nigeria, the APC and PDP are at each other’s throat laying claim to superiority in strength and public acclaim. While the APC continue to hold on to the advantages of federal might and control of more states and seats in the legislature, the PDP have not relented in robbing non-performance, intractable insecurity and the economic woes of Nigerians on the face of the APC to gain advantage over the ruling party at the centre.

At the national level, APC seems to be in a belligerent war over control of the party. The Governor Mai Buni-led Caretaker Committee has met a bricks-wall through the palace coup launched by the Bola Tinubu boys in the party led by Governor of Niger State, Sanni Bello, who has succeeded in edging Buni out to grab control of the party. The dust generated by the Bello-led coup may snowball into a wider conflagration that may hurt the unity of the APC into the March 26th National Convention since the outcome may determine the fate of the office seekers in the build up to the 2023 general elections. PDP has long crossed that bridge and APC has just weeks to put their house in order and prepare for the party primaries which must be concluded by June 3, 2022 in line with the INEC time table.

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From the above scenario, it is obvious these are no enthralling times for the ruling APC. There are so many uncertainties in the air. No one is sure of what the future portends. How smoothly APC is able to navigate through this turbulent sea will determine the fate of the party in the coming polls. A major factor that will work for the party is the stabilizing role President Muhammadu Buhari could play to put the party on the path of peace and rectitude. Once the National Convention is organized without much issue, APC will be in a proper shape to face the future. At least, the party had passed this road in 2014 during the formative days of the APC just a year to the 2015 general election which the party won against the then incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.

One major headache ahead of the APC is the Bola Tinubu’s ambition for 2023. Despite his age and health condition, the man seems desperate to be president at all cost and such extreme anxiety could drive a gentleman into frenzy in search for what he wants. His desperation is already driving the party over the edge. From the look of things, Tinubu appears unstoppable and only Buhari could effectively check him, though not without consequences. The Tinubu that is campaigning will not take no for an answer. The success or otherwise of the APC National Convention will determine the shape of things ahead of 2023 particularly for the APC.
In Delta State, the picture is getting clearer by the day yet there is still uncertainty everywhere since Okowa has not heard from God to give direction to his foot-soldiers. Since after the second round of screening by the DC-23 which threw up Rt Hon Sheriff Oborevwori, Chief Kenneth Gbagi and Chief David Edevbie as prospective candidates from the Urhobo axis the political atmosphere had been dogged by so much intrigue, with devious campaign of calumny launched against some of the preferred aspirants. Chief David Edevbie and Hon Sheriff Oborevwori had been at the receiving end of these campaigns. This is however expected because, in every political contest, only those with strong hope of winning get the butt from opponents. That too is applicable to the man with the ball in the football pitch. Suddenly, the Speaker of the State House of Assembly has become an ex-convict in the estimation of his detractors. To those who do not like his face, David Edevbie has become an ordinary clerk in a financial institution in Europe. That is the extent hatred and timid politics can drive some people.

The pressure from the Ijaw axis is intense but that should not be any reason to worry. I have my reasons and I will keep those reasons to my chest for now. Those hurling missiles from the camp of those who failed the DC-23 screening should not be taken serious also. The PDP primaries are just a couple of weeks away. Only one candidate will emerge to face Senator Ovie Omo-Agege of the APC who appears to have already started preparing for 2023. If an Ijaw aspirant emerges from the PDP primaries, it will be a walk over for Senator Ovie Omo-Agege in 2023. This is so because, the dubious ‘Sokoto votes’ which the Ijaws flaunt during general elections have been eroded by the import of the Electoral Act 2022. Delta Central, the usual battleground between PDP and the opposition, is now used to ‘dry voting’ without padding while the Ijaws will learn the act the hard way in 2023. The four Ijaw Local Government Areas of Burutu, Bomadi, Patani and Warri South-West put together will hardly generate 40,000 votes for PDP in 2023. That is when Ijaw will learn the true act of democratic rectitude the hard way. At least, with Omo-Agege in the ballot, those ‘toxic votes’ merchants will lose big time.

What is fueling Ijaw insurrection against Urhobo is the claim to electoral superiority in terms of toxic votes that had always characterized results from that axis. 2023 will be a different ball game and the earlier Ijaw learnt to play by the rules, the better. The Ovie Omo-Agege I know will be a hard nut to crack by an Ijaw candidate. This writer wishes to emphasize that the earlier PDP understands what is ahead the better. Rigging election against Omo-Agege is out of the question. PDP remains the stronger political platform as of now but throwing up just anybody against an Ovie Omo-Agege will be the greatest mistake PDP will make in 2023. The Deputy Senate President knows the game through and through and will play it in the coming poll.

Aggrieved PDP elements will work for Omo-Agege while wounded APC elements will also work for PDP. There will be an osmotic exchange of energy between both political parties and the mightier sword will prevail. The concern of this writer is that head or tail, Urhobo should make it to government house in 2023.

Annabel Ogheneganre writes from Garki, Abuja. (09030558731 SMS only or ananabel4christ@hotmail.com)