Kenya Presidential Election: Comparing Notes

The Insight by Lateef Adewole

Tuesday, August 9, 2022, is another watershed in the political history of Kenya, a politically volatile East African country. That was the day that they went to poll to choose their next president for another five years. The final declaration of the winner was made by the Chairman of their Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), Mr. Wafula Chebukati, after six days of counting the ballots. He did that against all odds stacked against that final stage.

There was disagreement already about the outcome, even among the seven federal IBEC commissioners, that led to four out of the seven men, to issue press release before that final announcement, dissociating themselves from the outcome and criticised the results. Such action reminded someone of the June 12, 1993 presidential election in Nigeria, which was won by the late business mogul, Chief MKO Abiola and all the shenanigans of the infamous Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) that characterised it, led by the ignoble Senator Arthur Nzeribe, who passed away recently.

Their unpatriotic actions, instigated and backed by the powers that be, led to the unlawful annulment of that election which was considered to be the freest and fairest presidential election in the history of Nigeria. The consequence of it was dire as the country was plunged into crisis of immeasurable proportion for the following five years after the “Maradona” himself, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, eventually “stepped aside”, installed an Interim National Government (ING), headed by Chief Ernest Shonekan (now late), who was eventually booted out after just three months, by the maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha, also late!

Elections in Kenya have always been followed by crisis caused by constant allegations of rigging. The worst was after the presidential election in 2007. It was contested then between the incumbent President Emilo Stanley Mwai Kibaki and the major opposition, Raila Odinga. While riggings were alleged on both sides, Odinga believed he won the election but was maniputed by the incumbent. All pointers supported the claim as all independent observers, both local and international, corroborated the mass rigging and the secrecy that surrounded the counting and announcement of the final results.

Even the Chairman of the Electoral Commission then, Samuel Kivuitu, said he was unsure of who actually won the election and that he was pressured to declare Kibaki as the winner. This was a departure from what happened this Monday, 15th of August, 2022, where the current chairman went ahead to declare the winner, who was not the favorite to win and was said not to be supported by the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, despite being his deputy. Obasanjo-Atiku comes to mind.

The Kenya post 2007 electoral violence was devastating. While the protest that broke out against the declaration, instigated by the opposition leader and candidate, Raila Odinga, was considered political, it became more of ethnic inspired violence as the tribe of the ruling leader, Kikuyu, became the target and were attacked across the strongholds of Odinga by other ethnic groups. The report had it that over 1200 people were killed and about 600,000 people were displaced.

Many global personalities, international bodies and organisations got involved, which finally led to settlement that culminated in a power-sharing agreement between the ruling party of Kibaki and opposition party of Odinga. It was then that the powerful position of the Prime Minister was recreated, after it was first abolished in 1964 when Kenya became a republic, and its occupier, the great liberator of Kenya, Jomo Kenyatta, transited and assumed the position of the president. Raila Odinga became the second PM of Kenya from 2008 to 2013. The position was later abolished for the second time by the 2010 constitution.

Such post election crisis would remind Nigerians of series of similar post election crisis that followed our presidential elections too. The “operation weti e” of 1963 to 1966 in the first republic nicknamed the “wild wild west” (www- not website o). The post June 12, 1993 crisis of the third republic and the most recent, post 2011 presidential election conflagration and killings. Nigeria and Kenya share common attributes in such.

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Since the Kenya presidential election ended and winner declared, who happened to be the sitting Deputy President, William Samoei Arap Ruto, unease has grabbed the country. He defeated the veteran, the great Raila Odinga, who have contested for that position for a record five times and was seen to be favoured to win. Moreso because, it was believed that the outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta did not support Ruto, his deputy, but favoured his former archrival, Odinga, to win, though they belong to different parties.

Ruto also ran on a different party from the ruling party since he had disagreement with his boss. That might have informed his yet to congratulate Ruto for winning the contest. He must have shocked them. It was against the run of play. The opposition leader, who lost, Raila Odinga, has rejected the result too and has promised to challenge the outcome by all legal means possible. The worry for many Kenyans and observers around the world is the tendency for violence by the Kenyans after similar past elections, based on history.

There have been skirmishes around the country since that declaration. Moreso that the individual involved has been the one that has always lost in the last five times which were always followed by unrests as the opposition leader never agreed he lost. Despite our comparative similarities, Nigerians are still far more decorous. Only some instances did supporters of a candidate who lost the presidential election had to result to violence. In previous elections, a major opposition leader, General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd.), later won in 2015, and became the president of Nigeria till date, after he had previously lost in three elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011. The last was followed by serious crisis.

I have observed a trend since this Kenya election declaration. It is the excitement that the supporters of Mr. Peter Obi have exhibited. They tried to equate Obi to Ruto. They made comparison between the two and tried to draw similarities between them, in an effort to encourage themselves and boost their confidence about their chances and believe that their candidate, Peter Obi, will win the next year presidential election in Nigeria. Ruto is portrayed to be the “underdog”, not from the ruling dynasties like Kenyattas and Odingas, and not supported by the establishment. So, his narrow winning (50.5%) is considered as the triumph of the “voice of the people”, seen as “the voice of god”; (vox populi, vox dei). Is this true? Well, to some extent. However, let no one delude themselves that Obi is like Ruto. They are miles apart.

William Ruto is a man who had come of age, beyond the chronological one which is 55 now, younger than Obi (61). He has been part and parcel of Kenya’s political evolution in the last 30 years. The current position he is holding before winning this election only happens to be the highest he has attained. Whatever bad the previous governments are accused of, the goods they achieved, and powers they wield, Ruto shared and benefitted from all immensely. He is considered as one of the richest politicians in Kenya today. How did he make his money? I do not want to delve into that. But he cannot be said to be “clean”, in similar manner the “Obidients” paint their principal to be, something others disagree with. No politician in the world is completely clean. Only if the searchlight has not been beamed enough into their secrets. Obi does not even qualify to be called that. Many agree with his being “decent”, at most.

Ruto is not a political neophyte in national politics of Kenya. He has been in parliament since 1998. He has worked with the last three presidents of Kenya. He was appointed Minister for Home Affairs in 2002 under Daniel Arap Moi. Then as Minister of Agriculture from 2008 to 2010 under the government of Mwai Kibaki and later the Minister of Higher Education from April to October 2010. He was elected along President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2012 and has been in that administration in the last 10 years. He has acquired power, wealth, influence, network, connections and political capital over the years. Is that the person “Obidients” say does not have structure and are comparing with their Peter Obi? That’s laughable.

They even claimed he was majorly popular on social media and that was why he won. Nothing could be more politically naive. All these are just to convince themselves that Obi is good to go, even if other parties and candidates’ supporters claim he has no structure that can win a national election, like the presidential, for him in Nigeria. His opponents claimed that he is only more popular on social media but unfortunately, social media alone does not win elections. Not in Nigeria. Not anywhere in the world.

I have always stated that elections are mathematics. They are approached strategically with calculative mind. It is a game of numbers, real numbers, not some fictitious ones usually churned out as online poll results that usually confused inexperienced aspirants and candidates, sometimes. That has never really worked in Nigeria. And I doubt if it will start with 2023 elections.

In as much as there are lessons to be learnt by Nigerians, parties, candidates and INEC, from the Kenya election, we are not “mates”. Kenya is just about 26% of Nigeria’s size in population, 63% in land mass and 25% of Nigeria’s GDP. It is a big country in its right, being the seventh largest GDP in Africa at about $114.35 billion. It is heart-warming to know that officials from our INEC were sent as observers in the election. They must have learnt a few things there, which are applicable and can be replicated here as they prepare to conduct successful elections in 2023.

One, since 2007, Kenya has started deploying technology in their elections. They now use Biometric Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), which has also been adopted in Nigeria. They do electronic transmission of results. If all these were used and done, why then we’re constant disputes? It only showed that beyond technology, character of the participating actors in any election matter a lot. It makes all the difference. These two innovations have been deployed in three governorship elections so far in Anambra, Ekiti and Osun states, and the outcomes were largely acceptable. This is a reflection of greater political maturity in Nigeria than Kenya. To them, “b’igba ba d’ojude, a si, bi o si se si, a fo” (it is fight to finish). They like to fight for elections without weighing the wider consequences.

In Kenya, there was diaspora voting from 12 countries that were verified. This is still like rocket science in Nigeria as the politicians at home seem not eager to allow our people outside Nigeria to participate in choosing the president and other political office holders of their home country. Everyone knows that these guys abroad are likely to vote majorly against any ruling party in Nigeria. This is because, they will be influenced by what they have seen and their experiences abroad. They will be tempted to compare leadership and governance in those countries, especially in the Western world, to that of Nigeria. And that is automatic failure for Nigeria’s leadership. They will always believe the sitting government is bad.

Also, independent candidacy was available. A record 47 of them vied for the presidency. Although, I can’t see how far an independent candidate can go in a presidential election. That will amount to a waste money printing lengthy or cumbersome ballot papers. However, at lower level elections, introducing independent candidacy can go a long way to improve the quality of leadership that will emerge, as it will give many good, competent but not “moneybag” individuals to aspire, contest and possibly win in their local areas as councillors, local government chairmen. legislatures, who represent small constituencies at states and even federal. It will throw up more quality representation.

Another one is putting both the pictures of the candidates and party logos together on the ballot. Can this be done in Nigeria? Not impossible? What will be the effect? It will improve the visual distinction among the parties. It will help voters to recognise who they are actually voting for and avoid mistakes. However, in the real sense, many voters do not even know or bothered to know the candidates they are voting for, especially in many positions different from the presidency and governorship. A lot of Nigerians do not know the lawmakers representing them. They just vote for the party. So, this might just be a waste of additional cost of printing pictures on the ballots.

William Ruto also appealed to the populace with his issue-based campaigns. He was specific as to what he plans to do and achieve as their president. This is a very important lesson for us in Nigeria. Candidates, parties and their supporters should focus on issue-based discussions and campaigns, instead of the needless abuses, insults, threats that many of them are seen doing. Nigeria has more than enough challenges that need to be addressed. They should speak to them.

In all, let me congratulate the president-elect, Mr. William Ruto. He should be magnanimous in victory, which he seems to be exhibiting in his victory speech where he said he would not be vindictive and that no one should harbour any fear. The loser, Mr. Raila Odinga, has refused to accept defeat, and plans to challenge the outcome. This is within his right. We only appeal to him to call his supporters to order and let the previous horrible experience, as witnessed in 2007, not repeat itself.

President Uhuru Kenyatta must rise to the occasion and show leadership. If truly he parted ways with his deputy and did not support him, now that he has won, he and his caucus should accept the new reality, support him and assuage dissatisfied parties. They should know that power belongs to God and He gives whoever He wishes. Nigerian politicians, political parties and Nigerian citizens should learn from all of these and brace themselves up for any eventuality in 2023. You win some, you lose some.

May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.

God Bless Nigeria.

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