Adeleke And How Osun Was ‘Won’ And ‘Lost’

By Annabel Ogheneganre

Ademola Adeleke, popularly known as the dancing senator has bounced back at last to claim his victory. He won in 2018 but was not declared winner because, the electoral process in Nigeria then was still in the works. On Saturday July 16, 2022, Adeleke was declared winner, this time against the incumbent Governor Oyetola, making the victory even more satisfying. The Aregbesola factor may have contributed to his victory, but the fact remains that the popular candidate, wanted by the people and truly loved and voted at the poll has won. The victory, as expected has sent the PDP family in Nigeria into wild celebration, promising to repeat same feat in the 2023 general elections. The question is, who is the winner of the 2022 gubernatorial election in Ekiti State? Who did the people vote for? Is it PDP or Senator Ademola Adeleke?
To answer this question, one may need to evaluate the situation and attempt to interrogate whether if the table were turned and Adeleke had been in the ballot on the APC platform, would he had won? The answer, no doubt is in the affirmative. Nothing would have stopped Adeleke, not the PDP which was roundly defeated in Ekiti a couple of months earlier. What played out on Saturday is that the people did not vote for PDP, rather they voted for the Dancing Senator. The Adeleke family is loved in Osun. Oyetola and his estranged godfather, Aregbesola were on the same page when Adeleke won and was denied in 2018 with less than a thousand votes in a rerun which the APC used the military and all security apparatuses available to them to rig for Oyetola. By 2022 with the introduction of the new BVAS technology, rigging was reduced to the barest minimum and the result is what gave Adeleke the victory.

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Let us get this very clear, in 2023 Osun State will vote for Bola Ahmed Tinubu or Peter Obi. The face of Nigeria politics is changing and the people are now voting for individuals instead of blindly supporting political parties. Prior to July 16, most political leaders in Osun will proudly announce that Osun is APC state. But the result has indicated that no political party owns any state. Just as it is in Osun, the arrogant claim that Delta is a PDP state can easily be demystified in 2023 if the right thing is not done. Let me sound this note of caution at this level that the Osun election is not and can never be a reflection of how the people will vote in 2023. An incumbent governor has just been humiliated by a disenchanted people. Ethnicity and religion will not be the deciding factor in the 2023 general election. The victory of Senator Ademola Adeleke has demystify the controversy over a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Osun, a predominantly Muslim state has voted for a Christian-Christian ticket. The people voted, not minding the religious background of the candidate. The implication is that the people must be convinced of a better deal before they can support any candidate. Party is no longer supreme. A brother or friend whom you believe cannot protect your interest cannot get your vote. Many party faithful will betray their political parties in 2023. That is the reality on ground and that is the message from Osun State.
As Ijeoma Uba, GM of a radio station in Asaba puts it in a facebook post, ‘’Even with the results from Osun State, I still feel that People’s Democratic Party, PDP, handed over victory to All Progressives Congress, APC in the coming presidential election through its choice of standard bearer. PDP in a desperate move to win the election by all means, gave the ticket to the North, not minding the zoning formula. The Southern Governors also forsook their earlier resolve of bringing the cup home.
‘’Perhaps, they didn’t see Peter Obi getting the kind of acceptance he’s getting, otherwise, he wouldn’t have been frustrated out of the party. They overlooked the increased and now violent agitation in the South East region over perceived marginalization of the region in the scheme of things in the country. The Party made light the fact that the zone had always supported it and voted overwhelmingly for it in 2019 when a son of the soil ran on that ticket.

‘’APC is most likely to win the 2023 presidential election even with the result of Osun governorship election today. The reason is that for the first time in a long while, the opposition is hugely divided. It’s not the usual ruling party versus opposition. While APC remains largely intact for the presidential election, opposition is divided between PDP, LP and NNPP.

‘’Judging from the tempo as at today, Labour Party will get a reasonable chunk of the votes of the opposition, followed by the PDP and NNPP. The current electoral system, zeal of the youth and the young at heart, more civic enlightenment and the seeming indifference of President Muhammad Buhari over who emerges his successor, rigging, at least in the magnitude it was, will not be easy. Card reader/BVAS is dealing with rigging and stopping fishes and monkeys from voting.

‘’This means that Peter Obi on grounds of credibility or being the lesser evil, will do more than the big wigs thought. But, unfortunately, because the presidential election is not won by simple majority votes, he may not win as in my calculations, his running mate, although a Muslim, will not be able to get him the required number of votes from Muslim dominated areas. He may have a close to call with the PDP in the South East but win, make deep cuts in the South South without winning, come second in the South West (if Easterners are not stopped from voting by thugs), get many votes in the northern zones without winning.

‘’On the other hand, PDP will most likely lose in the South East even with the support of the political elites who directly benefit from the system. PDP will also lose South West, win narrowly in the South South and North East. North Central and North West are difficult for me to predict now because Tinubu has his people there, is a Muslim and has a Muslim running mate too. Atiku is also a Muslim but I think APC will win these two zones while Obi will get votes too.

‘’I like the awakening that Peter Obi has given to the electorate. I applaud it wholeheartedly and I wish it can translate to victory. Do not let anyone tell you your vote will be wasted. Hold on to your belief. For now, it’s a toast to the dancing senator, now Osun State Governor-elect, Senator Ademola Adeleke’’.

I would like to end this piece by sounding this note of caution again and again that 2023 will not be about political party but the candidates. PDP did not win Osun State, Ademola Adeleke is the winner. PDP on which platform he ran can celebrate but the party should understand that what played out in Osun goes beyond political party. While the PDP gubernatorial aspirants are tearing themselves to shreds over the party ticket in Delta State, the APC Omo-Agege and Osanebi are working themselves into the heart of the people, making uncommon inroads into impregnable fortresses of the PDP. Whoever believes APC cannot win Delta State in 2023 should be prepared for the shock of his life because the streets are no longer friendly for dreamers like them. The people want action and PDP cannot afford to face 2023 on a fractured platform as the party is currently. We are watching. And we will continue to pray and hope that the best material carries the day in 2023.
Annabel Ogheneganre writes from Garki, Abuja. ([email protected])