Tinubu, ECOWAS, And Niger’s Leadership Conundrum

The Insight by Lateef Adewole

As the Yorubas would say; “a ko le f’eniyan j’oye awodi, ko ma le gb’ediye” (every authority, comes with responsibility). This saying might have guided President Tinubu in his opinions and actions in the past three weeks, with respect to the unfortunate political situation in the Niger Republic, where a legitimate democratic government was overthrown in a coup d’état, orchestrated by the presidential guards, under the leadership of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who later proclaimed himself as the ‘President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland’.

President Tinubu, by virtue of his position as the new Chairman of ECOWAS Heads of States and Governments, has responsibility to lead and guide the sub-regional body, as to what to do about the coup matter and how to go about doing it. He must have been under immense pressure in deciding, given many intricacies involved because of the country concerned, Niger, which happens to be our next door neighbour, with long standing relationship that surpassed mere sharing of boundaries.

In the ECOWAS bloc, Nigeria shared the largest boundary with Niger, 1500 kilometers, with seven states bordering it in Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno states. In each of these states, the border communities can hardly be distinguished as where one belongs, whether Nigeria or Niger. The people in there share historical sociocultural, economic, religious and ethnic ties. They also share family bonds. So, there are many Nigerians who have relatives across the border in Niger. Same as many Nigeriens.

Our former President Buhari gave credence to this in one of his interviews while still in office, when he was asked the reason a rail project being financed by Nigeria is extending to Maradi, in Niger Republic. Hear his response: “I have first cousins in Niger. There are Kanuris, there are Hausas and there are Fulanis in Niger Republic, just as there are Yorubas in Benin Republic. You can’t absolutely cut them off. But the rail, look at the plan. If you read the plan, how we are rehabilitating that rail. Don’t forget Niger Republic has discovered oil too, as you know and we don’t want to allow them to go through Benin Republic. We want them to come through Nigeria.”

Nigeria has also been working together with Niger in our bid to confront the criminalities that have engulfed the country for the past two decades, the terrorist organisations; boko haram, ISWAP, and the bandits. The Nigerian Army has been working with their counterparts in neighbouring countries, including Niger, in the Multi National Joint Task Force (MNJTF). This collaboration is critical to our success in the fight against insurgency.

All these made it more complicated to speedily take actions against the military junta that siezed power in Niger. In their 1st Extraordinary General Meeting, held on 30th of July, 2023, ECOWAS issued a seven day ultimatum to the coupists to release the dethroned president, Muhamed Bazoum, who was detained by them, and restore democracy by reinstating him. There were many other resolutions passed too. They include various economic sanctions on the country. Closing of all air and land borders with Niger. Declaring their airspace a no-fly zone. Freezing their accounts. And so on.

It was also declared that in the event that the coupists remained unyielding, military option will have to be deployed. They thereby directed all the Chiefs of Defence Staff of all the member states to meet and begin to prepare and strategise for possible invasion. This, we have been seeing in the last two weeks.

There is a misconception that is going on. The narative has been that Nigeria is going to war with Niger. This is untrue. The issue on ground is not about Nigeria personally, it is a joint decision of all the countries within ECOWAS. Whatever action is taken by them, cannot and should not be personalised to Nigeria. It just happened, whether by coincidence or design, that our president is the chairman of the bloc at a time like this.

Many even felt it was a “set-up”. That the political unrest was already being felt in Niger, that was why Tinubu was elected at his first attendance of ECOWAS meeting, barely a month he became the president of Nigeria. It is believed that as a thoroughbred democrat, he, as a chairman of the body, would not tolerate any adventurist toppling legitimate democratic government within the subregion, being someone who fought tooth and nail to see the end of dictatorship in Nigeria himself and enthroned this democracy we are enjoying today.

This is buttressed by the fact that, since 2020, there have been four other democratic governments that have been toppled by their military, and ECOWAS did nothing about them. Mali (August 2020), Burkina Faso (Sept 2020), Chad (April 2021), and Guinea (September 2021). Where were ECOWAS and its leaders all these years while all that happened? Why did they looked the other way at those times? Worst still, some of these coupists were allowed to sit with other democratic presidents in their meetings since then. What has changed?

On Thursday, the ECOWAS had their 2nd Extraordinary General Meeting to review the situation in Niger, following the expiration of the seven day ultimatum. They were resolute and insisted on their previous position. This has heightened tension within the region, especially in Nigeria. The military across the member countries have been asked to be on standby, while other diplomatic channels and political solutions are being explored.

Unfortunately, the military junta in Niger has not helped matters too. There were reports that almost all the emissaries sent to meet the leaders were rebuffed. Delegations from ECOWAS, African Union (AU), and the United Nations (UN) were not allowed to meet with the leaders. Two eminent personalities from Nigeria, former Head of State, General Abdulsalam Abubakar (Rtd.) and HRH, Alhaji Sa’ad Abubakar, the Sultan of Sokoto, were specially sent by President Tinubu, given the personal relationship between Nigeria and Niger. They were not welcomed. This attitude of the junta could irritate anyone. It is as if they are spoiling for war themselves.

Personally, I don’t want any military action to take place. In all conflicts, war has never really solved any problem. After the catastrophic destructions that war brings, the parties always end up on the round table. Of what essence is the war then? My concern is that, Nigeria has more to lose and sacrifice than all other ECOWAS states put together. The country in question is also our immediate neighbour with many links between us as highlighted earlier. The people in that country are seeing the ECOWAS actions as Nigeria’s.

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It is understandable that when the strength of Niger is compared with that of Nigeria alone, not to talk of the whole ECOWAS countries, Niger will look inconsequential. Daily trust published few stats about the strength of the two countries. Nigeria vs Niger: total population 225m / 25m. Available manpower 119.3m / 7.3m. Fit for service 86m / 4.9m. Active Personnel 135,000 / 10,000.

It can be seen that it should ordinarily not take Nigeria alone more than some days to crush Niger. Even with the added supports which their fellow military led juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have pledged to them. But, do we really want war? In as much as I agree that a stop needs to be put to this gradual spreading of undemocratic elements trying set Africa backward in this 21st century, by teaching them a lesson, wisdom must always prevail.

Now, no country can and should be underrated. Who would have thought Russia wouldn’t finished off Ukraine within days, with the fearful image Russia has calved for itself for decades and with a war veteran and war monger like Putin at the helms of affairs? Surprisingly, the war has lasted over 18 months now, with no clear victory to any side. Ukraine could have suffered more devastation but has proven not to be a push over. Moreso, the citizens seemed to back their leader for the war.

Similar scenerio isn’t impossible in Niger. This is because, the citizens seemed to have accepted the new military administration. Some days ago, video of a rally in support of the new leadership went viral online. A 30,000 capacity stadium was overflowing with supporters, who are ordinary citizens. They were chanting the praises of the military rulers. At other times and places, protests were held in support of the new government. In such situation, where the people seem to be fine with what outsiders see as aberration, what can or should outsiders do? “Alara ni ara ko ro oun, eyin ni o ku aisun, o ku aiwo” (taking analgesic for another person’s headache).

Have the ECOWAS states also considered the interests of the foreign powers in the whole imbroglio? What are the signals coming from them? Who and who has what and what to protect? Someone called attention to the fact that till today, America has not called the incident a “coup”. Why? Even when their envoy, Deputy Secretary, Victoria Nuland, sent there was not received. What about France? The main country that has refused to remove their leash around the necks of many countries within the subregion? It is being insinuated that the current coupists were sponsored by those who want France out. Fingers are pointing to Russia as showing interest in the country. The Russian military contractor, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of a Russian state-funded Wagner Private Military Company, was seen congratulating the junta.
All these are in the mix.

So, even if ECOWAS is contemplating a military action against Niger leadership, they must be circumspect and do their due diligence, lest they go in for a shock. I pray it won’t get to that because of our own strategic interest as a country.

The military leaders have also tactically begin to cajole the public, with their setting up of a “new government” of 21 civilians and appointment of a Prime Minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, a former Minister of Economy and Finance from November 2002 to February 2010, and the army will only be in charge of Ministries of Defence and Interior. This is a strategic move on their part. It has the potential to lessen the pressure on them too, given the pseudo-democratic outlook of such arrangement. Although, that won’t cut it for ECOWAS.

Right now, the prevailing opinion in Nigeria is that Nigerians don’t want Tinubu to go to war. But, that is not his sole decision to make. Within the country, the usual ethnicisation of everything has crept in. When one watches and listens to how many northerners speak about the matter, one would wonder if they are Nigerians or Nigeriens. Irrespective of historical ties that people from one country might have with another, so long the delineation has put each in different countries, it is expected that the people’s loyalty must be to the country they found themselves. It will be unpatriotic for a Yoruba man to be loyal to Benin Republic in place of Nigeria, just because fellow Yorubas belong there. So, if Nigeria decide to join other ECOWAS states to wage war on Niger, what is the assurance of not having internal sabotage? “A fi aparo sabe, a n gbinka”.

How I wish Nigeria could use this to re-assert its leadership again within the subregion and Africa at large. As we are reinvigorating our economy with many plans and policies being put in place now, we need to be reckoned with as a military force too. The roles that our military played in various peacekeeping missions as part of ECOMOG and UN Forces, in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, etc., is still unrivalled. But, we have more than enough troubles to deal with at home right now. Insurgency is still very much alive. Bandits, IPOB terrorists, ethnic militias, kidnappers and other criminal elements are still on rampage. They need 100% attention of our security agencies.

Shutting the borders with Niger is hampering trade, movement of goods and people, with attendant negative consequences. The closing of airspace by Niger means that flights from Nigeria to Europe and Asia cannot go straight over Niger. They have to start taking detours that will take longer hours, higher costs and more inconveniences. This can get worse if the other supporting countries of the Niger junta do the same.

Other consequences include the refugees that will result from displacement of people from their ancestral homes in Niger. Nigeria will bear part of the brunt, given our porous borders with Niger. Also, war will further open up the region to ‘jackals’ who profit from destabilisation within Africa. They use such opportunity to exploit mineral resources in troubled areas illegally, while they pretend to be supporting one party against another. There will be further proliferation of arms and increased crime rate in Nigeria, even when the war might have ended. All these are extra burden on Nigeria and huge distraction to our leadership. We don’t need it.

The pact on electricity had already been broken by Niger, with the Kamdadji dam project they are building on the upper River Niger since 2017. This will hamper the electricity generation in Nigeria. This is against the agreement between the two countries for years that saw Nigeria sell power to Niger, with understanding that they will not dam the River Niger. It is part of the insults that smaller countries regularly meted on Nigeria without repercussion.

In all, it is very important that military takeover be discouraged and needs to be stopped before they get out of hand. However, all diplomatic avenues should be considered and explored for peaceful resolution, rather than the use of force, because, in the final analysis, innocent people are the ones who will lose majorly. And the scar of war will not be obliterated easily, long after the war is over. Those who are supporting coup in Niger, especially people who lost the last presidential election in Nigeria, who now think military can save them, are acting out of ignorance and selfishness. Military rule is never a panacea for bad democratic governance. They are most times, worse. May we never witness military rule again in Nigeria.

However, democratically elected leaders need to do introspection and asked the bitter questions as to why people are unhappy with them and will celebrate their exits, as witnessed in Niger. They often act in detachment from the reality facing the people they claim to represent. In the midst of biting hardship, flaunting extravagance and living ostentatious lifestyles can set the people against them. Government exists to serve the people. But in our case, it seems it exists to serve the people occupying political offices. This is not acceptable. Something needs to be done urgently. A stitch in time, saves nine.

May God continue to protect us and guide us aright.

God Bless Nigeria.

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August 12, 2023.