2027: Tinubu Is Not Goodluck Jonathan

By Annabel Ogheneganre

Prior to the 2015 general elections which former President Goodluck Jonathan lost to Muhammadu Buhari, many Nigerians expected him to take some drastic measures to check the northern oligarchy that wanted him out at all costs. Bola Ahmed Tinubu was in the engine room of the plot to unseat Jonathan. He saw through all the costly mistakes Jonathan made. He knew Jonathan had failed to act decisively to check the bourgeoning opposition at the time. To date, many believe that he was the architect of his own downfall. He dared Obasanjo, who also commanded considerable influence at the time. The gang-up and anti-Jonathan sentiments were well orchestrated by a strong web of well-coordinated propaganda. He allowed the opposition a free rein to mess things up for him.

The issues that culminated in the fall of Goodluck Jonathan were many. Prior to 2015, the internal divisions and weaknesses in the then-ruling PDP were deep and debilitating. Five sitting governors and prominent political leaders across Nigeria dumped the PDP for the then-nascent APC. However, in the present instance, the major opposition party, the PDP is fighting to remain afloat while the ruling APC is gaining ground by the day. The scenario today is the opposite of what played out in 2015. President Tinubu is not Jonathan. He is holding the APC firmly, and everything is under his control. APC is intact, and big political gladiators are coming to sign up for the party every now and then. While PDP was haemorrhaging terribly ahead of 2015, APC is getting stronger ahead of 2027.

The role of INEC under Prof Athahiru Jega prior to 2015 was drastically against Jonathan. INEC role is ideally to ensure a credible and transparent election in Nigeria. But Jega was biased against Jonathan. The use of the card readers was manipulated against PDP by INEC. According to Doyin Okupe, former Presidential spokesman, Jonathan refused to fight even when the omen was ominous. In spite of his enormous power and the avalanche of deployable arsenal of war at his disposal, Jonathan refused to deploy them as expected. He wanted to play fair. However, most key political players are usually too cynical to expose themselves to the unpredictable risk of a fair election. The ideal thing is to win by hook or crook. But Jonathan exuded too much calm, humility and integrity. By giving Jega a free hand to manage the elections, he allowed Jega to craft the weapons that were used to oust him from power.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who we all know is not a man who would allow any Jega or Mahood to oust him by any means. Prof Yakubu Mahood will go before the end of the year, not because of any malevolent demeanour, but his tenure will end by December, and the Bola Tinubu we all know will not bring a man who would manage the polls against his interests. Tinubu will most likely appoint his own trusted Yoruba man to the election umpire body, and the heavens will not fall. Tinubu won in 2023 against the wishes of the then-incumbent Buhari. He defeated the power brokers of the time, earning a well-deserved victory which some people believed was ill-deserved. If he did it outside of power, one wonders how the same set of people would be able to undo this man who defeated them without government power. 2027 is Tinubu’s to win, and no coalition by Atiku, Obi and El-Rufai, as well as the thoroughly demystified Rotimi Amaechi would be able to change the story.

The arguments that the government of the day has failed are relative. The allegation of corruption and cronyism, Boko harm insurgency, the Chibok girls and Economic concerns, which many believed could be deployed to undo Tinubu are mere gimmicks that will not hold water. Buhari accused Jonathan of all these failures, yet in 8 years, he could not fix any. For 8 years, Buhari could not return all the Chibok girls. Boko Haram is still ravaging the north, and those believed to be the brains behind the insurgency have congregated yet again under an ill-fated coalition to unseat Mr. President. They should be told in blunt terms that they have met their match in Tinubu. El-Rufai cannot deploy his terrorist gang against Tinubu, the Jagaban and arch Mafia in political matters.

When Buhari became President in 2015, the whole of Southern Nigeria supported his re-election in 2019 despite his failure to fix Nigeria. These are the same people who fought Jonathan to the ground in 2015. Once it is the turn of the south, they will not allow Nigeria to breathe. I insist that they have met their match in Tinubu. If the South fails to withstand these renegades in 2027, the trend will continue.

No president can fix all of Nigeria’s problems. Those who want to be sincere can testify to the fact that Mr. President has taken some tough decisions to place Nigeria on the path of economic recovery. No nation can prosper without having to face such challenges as Nigeria is facing today. Tinubu’s courage in tackling the myriad of issues confronting Nigeria deserves commendation. Buhari believed that fuel subsidy must go if Nigeria is to prosper. Atiku, Obi and other strong candidates in the 2023 general elections all advocated a total removal of fuel subsidy to guarantee stability in the economy. Today, Nigeria is facing dire economic difficulties, which the current leadership appreciates as the viable path to economic stability.

Let all the El-Rufais and Atikus of this world spin every evil narrative against Tinubu, but they will fail. Northern Nigeria does not own Nigeria. Tinubu should complete his second term before power devolves to the north. No coalition can unseat Tinubu. The man is way ahead of them. Most political parties in Nigeria have some form of link to Tinubu. The man is not perturbed. He will meet them in the field when the time comes.

Atiku Abubakar’s desperation for power will not let him plan his strategies well. If Atiku had supported Jonathan in 2015 by securing an agreement to be handed power after Jonathan’s second tenure, he may have been president today. But he has lost the goodwill of most Nigerians by choosing to be on the ballot in every election circle since 2003. In 2027, the bigger masquerade will unleash his full arsenal at the opposition for a victory they may not be able to comprehend. Tinubu is not as much of a gentleman as Jonathan, who will not fight to survive. He can never allow INEC to craft any weapon that can be used to oust him from power. Jagaban is prepared for battle, and he will break bones, crutch any rebel, level mountains and demystify any stubborn El-Rufai that may stand in his way to victory.

Annabel Ogheneganre of the Urhobo Voice Newspaper writes from Abuja. (08074542421 SMS Only or Whatsapp messages)