Is Iran’s Second Liberation Afoot?

By Bola BOLAWOLE
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“No army can withstand the strength of an idea whose time has come”- Victor Hugo.

Could Hugo’s assertion be what is happening in Iran as we speak? Has the time come for the Iranian people to liberate themselves a second time within a generation? Having moved from the Shah’s oppression to the Ayatollahs’ repression, are the Iranian people now ready – and, indeed, are on the move – to truly liberate themselves and be free?

Iran’s streets rage with protests in a classic demonstration of the often-stated but hardly-heeded saying that there is a limit to human endurance. Leaders everywhere think little of the saying by the iconic United States leader, Abraham Lincoln, that “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

Even if you hide under the toga of religion, you cannot fool all the people all the time. The veil, at some point, will be parted! After 47 years of Ayatollah rule, the scales are falling off the eyes of the Iranian people. Nothing incites us better than our pocket. So, when our pocket speaks, no one needs anyone to urge us into action!

Hundreds, if not thousands, of protesting Iranians have been mowed down by the repressive Islamic regime; yet, the rage of the people is not abated, as they keep pouring into the streets of major Iranian cities protesting the parlous state of the economy and the repression that the regime has employed for decades to keep the population in bondage.

The cage of religion is broken and the people in their multitudes are escaped from the snares of the fowlers. When will the same cage of religion – employed by both Islamic mullahs and Christian religion preneurs – be similarly broken in Nigeria?

Even if the Ayatollahs escape the ongoing rage of the people, their end may not be far from sight. For one, President Donald Trump has promised the protesters that help is on its way, even as he urged them to keep the pressure on the regime. A panicky Iranian regime is begging for negotiations.

Besides, no kingdom and no empire lasts forever: Every despot has an expiry date. Like the Shah’s oppressive reign came crashing in 1978/79, despite US support, the reign of the Ayatollahs is also bound to come crashing someday, despite the deceit of religion woven around it.

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Why do leaders fail to learn from history, thereby condemning their nations to move in cycles? The same factors that led to the fall of the Shah, propelling the Ayatollahs to victory, are similar to those leading to the collapse of the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

Consider this report, “The Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in the 1978–79 Iranian Revolution due to widespread opposition to his autocratic rule, social injustice, economic mismanagement, and perceived subservience to Western powers. Mass protests and strikes paralyzed the country in 1978, leading to his departure in January 1979.

“Key reasons for the Shah’s fall include: Political and social repression (and) authoritarian rule: The Shah’s government was highly autocratic, violating the Iranian constitution and repressing dissent through a powerful and feared secret police, SAVAK. Political parties, trade unions, and independent media were all suppressed.

“Western alignment and perceived puppet status: Many Iranians, from the secular left to the religious right, viewed the Shah as a “puppet” of non-Muslim Western powers, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, due in part to the 1953 CIA-backed coup that had reinstalled (the Shah) as an absolute monarch after he fled the country. His close ties with Israel further fueled this anti-Western sentiment.

“Disregard for Islamic tradition: The Shah’s aggressive modernization and Westernization programs, known as the “White Revolution”, clashed with Iran’s Shi’a Muslim identity and traditional conservative values, alienating many, especially the clergy. A controversial decision in 1976 to change the Islamic calendar to an imperial one was seen as a major insult to religious identity.

“Corruption and elitism: There was a widespread perception of extravagance and corruption within the royal court and ruling elite, which grew resentment among the general populace, including the poor and middle classes.

“Economic difficulties: Unequal distribution of wealth: Despite a rapidly-expanding economy and a windfall in oil revenues after 1973, many Iranians felt that the wealth primarily benefited the elite.

“Economic instability: The overly ambitious economic programs and a subsequent sharp economic contraction in 1977-1978, along with bottlenecks, inflation, and austerity measures, caused widespread disappointment and anger.

“Strikes: By late 1978, mass strikes by government and oil workers brought the economy to a halt, a critical turning point that paralyzed the country and weakened the regime.

“Rise of Ayatollah Khomeini and opposition unity: Khomeini’s leadership: The exiled cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini emerged as a charismatic and unifying figure for the diverse opposition movements, which included left-wing, nationalist, and intellectual allies. His messages, smuggled into Iran on thousands of cassette tapes, resonated with a broad spectrum of the population.

“Martyrdom cycle: A Shi’a tradition of commemorating the dead 40 days after their death led to a cycle of escalating protests and mass mobilization throughout 1978, strengthening the anti-Shah movement.

“Military’s neutrality: In the revolution’s final days, the Iranian armed forces declared their ‘neutrality’ on February 11, 1979, effectively removing the last pillar of support for the Shah’s regime and allowing the revolutionaries to take control.

“Ultimately, a combination of these deep-seated grievances, the Shah’s terminal illness (a secret at the time) which contributed to his indecision, the withdrawal of Western support under the (US President Jimmy) Carter administration’s human rights policy, and the organized, unified opposition under Khomeini created a ‘perfect storm’ that led to the collapse of the monarchy.”

Repression, religion and anti-American sentiments played pivotal roles in the Shah’s collapse. Riding on the crest of both to power, the Ayatollahs appear to have unduly overplayed their cards. Now, let us listen to a report of the factors leading to the Ayatollahs own collapse:

“Iran’s economy has been primarily damaged by a combination of international sanctions, chronic economic mismanagement and corruption, and an over-reliance on oil revenues.

“Key factors include international sanctions: Decades of strict sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other nations over Iran’s nuclear program, regional activities, and human rights record have been a major cause of the economic crisis. These sanctions have severely restricted Iran’s access to global financial markets and crippled its ability to export oil, historically the cornerstone of government revenue.

“Economic mismanagement and corruption: Internal issues such as persistent government budget deficits, a lack of productivity, and widespread corruption have undermined the economy. Government-controlled corporations, including those linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), often operate inefficiently, crowd out the private sector, and benefit from preferential access to resources.

“Oil dependence: Iran has been heavily dependent on oil revenues for its annual budget, making its economy highly vulnerable to fluctuations in market prices and international pressure. The inability to consistently export oil has led to severe revenue losses and fiscal instability.

“Currency devaluation and inflation: The rial (Iran’s official currency) has lost significant value over the years, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of Iranian citizens. This makes basic goods and services unaffordable for many and has pushed a large segment of the middle class into poverty.

“Energy crisis: Poor maintenance, aging equipment, and energy price subsidies that encourage waste have resulted in a systemic energy crisis, including frequent power outages and a bottleneck on industrial production capability.

“Foreign military involvement: Significant financial resources are allocated to regional interventions and supporting allies abroad, which critics argue compete with domestic social welfare and infrastructure development needs.

“Brain drain: The lack of economic opportunities, political instability, and human rights issues have led to the emigration of millions of highly educated professionals, resulting in a substantial loss of human capital and potential for innovation and growth.”

From the above, it can be deduced that a major problem of the Ayatollahs was their foreign policy or national interest decisions. They moved from an extreme pro-West position to a truculent anti-West posturing, unable to find a lasting accommodation with the West since 1979. They vow the destruction of the Jewish state of Israel. They seek nuclear weapons at all costs. They support radical Islam all over the place, even antagonising moderate Islamic states to the bargain.

Iran and Iraq fought a gruelling eight-year war that drained both nations and served the interests of their collective enemies while setting the two combatants back by many decades. Crippling sanctions imposed by the US-led Western coalition have dealt crippling damage on Iran’s economy, denying it of resources needed for national development. Of course, there is the scourge of corruption and mismanagement. In the midst of all of these, iron-hand rule soon replaced the support freely given by the people.

Most, if not all, of the above factors must sound familiar to Nigerians. Every politics, as they say, is local. Whatever politics a nation plays at the international level must not be allowed to have a telling effect on the local population. Unmitigated corruption, insensitivity of leaders, undue dependence on oil revenues, incessant power outages leading to declining productivity and high unemployment rate, unbearable cost of living engineered in the main by a steeply devalued currency – all these are no citizen’s friends. Patriotism cannot be successfully preached to an empty stomach.

Therefore, Nigerian leaders – and people – have a lot to learn from what is unravelling in Iran.

*Former editor of PUNCH newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-chief, BOLAWOLE was also the Managing Director/Editor-in-chief of The Westerner news magazine. He writes the ON THE LORD’S DAY column in the Sunday Tribune and TREASURES column in New Telegraph newspaper on Wednesdays. He is also a public affairs analyst on radio and television.