If Goodluck Jonathan Defects To APC!

By Annabel Ogheneganre

For much of 2021 till date, there have been lots of apprehension in the PDP fold of a possible defection of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to the APC possibly to fly the party’s Presidential ticket for the 2023 presidential elections. The issue had generated mixed feelings in the polity. His frequent visits to the State House in recent times have added much fuel to the raging controversy. Olusegun Obasanjo uncharitable posture to issues of the PDP’s fortune has not been encouraging. And Goodluck Jonathan, a man whose integrity has been acknowledged by the international community therefore stands a good chance of being the father of the PDP at this trying period.

2023 is going to be a most trying moment for the ruling APC in Nigeria. To win the presidency back to back is not going to be easy. PDP is strategizing on the best way to snatch power from the APC deploying very ingenious tactics like allowing the north grab the presidential ticket to run with any southern candidate of the APC. Such an arrangement will surely put the PDP on a more favourable state ahead of the polls because the north obsession with power is so strong that even APC states could allow the PDP to grab the presidency provided power is retained in the north. But the north may consider losing power for just four years if Goodluck Jonathan is in the ballot for the APC.
That is where the pendulum had been swinging so menacingly in the direction of the Otuoke political gentleman whom the APC harassed out of office in 2015, deploying all the ignoble tactics in and outside the books. They called him all sorts of names, told all the lies against him and eventually had their way when Jonathan refused to join issues with them.

He effortlessly relinquished power to Buhari into a quiet life devoid of squabbles and devious political horse-trading. He has since then landed juicy international recognitions and honour, shuttling the globe as ambassador of peace and democratic sobriety.
There is no certainty that Goodluck Jonathan was tinkering with the idea of defecting to APC to have another shot on the coveted office of President. But his absence from PDP outings and meetings lately, rumoured resignation from the PDP and defection of some of his critical supporters to the APC have awakening serious postulations on the possibility of his moving into the APC fold. The question now is if he does move to APC, what could possibly be the implications to political permutations in the south-south zone?
If Goodluck Jonathan moves to APC, the PDP in the south-south would come under serious pressure from within and without. The centrifugal forces that will act on the integrity of the party can cause unimaginable damage to the PDP in the area. So many part of Delta state will be under pressure particularly the Ijaw areas who may decide to throw their weight behind their kinsman from Bayelsa state. The likes of James Manager, the only PDP senator in Delta State today may simply join forces with Goodluck Jonathan and before long, Tompolo and other Ijaw political war generals will join Goodluck in APC.
There are some people who believe that Jonathan will lose again even if he runs on APC platform. While that is a possibility, it would be more profitable for the north to support a Jonathan’s return to Aso Rock to guarantee a return of power to the north in just 4 years. The south may not be able to withstand the unity of purpose of the northern power-brokers if they are determined to relinquish power for just 4 years. In another four years time, power will return to the north. While the south will always have their say, the north will have their way because Nigeria is structured in such a way that the north is at a most advantageous position to control power around the presidency.

If Jonathan defects, let those who think Ovie Omo-Agege cannot be governor understand that the hurricane that will follow that one political defection can sweep many off their feet. As things stand presently, PDP is in a very strong stead to win Delta State because of the disunity in the APC. The Ogboru factor and Keyamo tendency are not working fully for the party yet. PDP is waxing stronger, harvesting critical but disgruntled APC elements into the fold. But if Jonathan defects to APC, let all know that a major earthquake will follow and the consequences can better be experienced than described. Goodluck Jonathan’s aide, Reno Omokri had assured that his boss was not going anywhere. If that stands then PDP is on a stronger footing to face 2023 particularly at the State level.

With the out-come of the DC-23 Screening exercise which has pruned down the number of aspirants from the Central district to Sheriff Oborevbori, David Edevbie and Kenneth Gbagi, the stage is now set for Urhobo to play the game. Some of those who celebrated their inclusion in the five man list, attended further screening and were told only three would be selected are now crying wolf, branding DC-23 as lacking the power to screen them out. DC-23 may lack the power to screen them out but the implication is that having lost the backing of a major political block in Delta state, it would be almost impossible for the other districts to buy into any argument to retain them in the race. There is a moral clause on their head and they cannot fly beyond this level.

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Issuing press statements to discredit DC-23 after submitting oneself to their authority cannot move mountains. DC-23 has done their best and the committee deserves all the accolades that can be mustered. All the attempts to smear their hard-earned integrity did not move them. I laugh each time I read statements discrediting the committee over alleged financial inducement. Those who believe such trash do not wish Urhobo well. The outcome is not a bad one and these three names should be enough for Urhobo to fly with. Those who wish to fly believing Urhobo political backing is not important can fly on their own. The game will end somehow but it would be more rewarding if those eliminated at the second round of the game drop their ambition and fly with those already in the semi-finals. Urhobo will most likely get it right in 2023.

Annabel Ogheneganre writes from Garki, Abuja. (09030558731 SMS only or [email protected])